Contents
1 Introduction…..8
Some of the numerous "systems" used today in attempting to pick a winner
Betting the Favorite
Form and Condition System
Betting on the horse with the best last race performance
Speed Handicapping
Class Handicapping
2 The Logic/Philosophy of Handicapping…..10
Rationale behind handicapping a horse race
Types of races: Maiden, Claiming, Allowance, Handicap & Stakes
How many races should I bet?
When should I "pass" a race?
"Good Bet" or a "Best Bet"
Should I play the "Exotics": Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 4, etc
What it costs to "Box" the Exotics and Cost Chart
Establishing a bankroll and sticking with it
3 Differences in Race Tracks…..14
The difficulty in handicapping a race when past performance data shows competing horses have
not raced the exact same distances at the same tracks.
There are obvious differences in every North American Race Track
Distances analysis
Length and width of turns
Racing surfaces
Stretch Runs
winninghorsebets' Track/Distance Equivalent Chart
What does the Equivalent Chart allow you to do.
Track Size and Length of Stretch Chart
4 Lengths Behind The Winner…..18
Why it is necessary to adjust a horse's performance when they did not win the race
What is a Beaten Lengths Chart?
Assigning MPH to distance a horse travels
Why it was necessary to construct a more relevant Beaten Lengths Chart
How Lengths Behind The Winner should count in adjusting a performance
5 Components Of Our Process…..22
The number of steps in our process to be detailed in Chapters 6 through 11.
Step 1 Track/Distance Equivalent Number
Step 2 Winner's Time
Step 3 Today's Purse Value
Step 4 Previous Purse Value
Step 5 Beyer Speed Rating
Step 6 Lengths Behind The Winner
Final Performance Rating
6 Step 1: Track/Distance Equivalent Chart…..24
These unique numbers will allow you to compare horses past performances when they have raced at
different Tracks and Distances: The Core of our winning process
How to accurately compare these performances
Why you cannot use one set of Standard Numbers for all tracks
Why you must use the Distance Equivalent Number for the current track
How to use the Track/Distance Equivalent Chart
Track Abbreviation Chart with Official Symbol for each
7 Step 2: Current Purse Value…..29
How the value of the Purse for the race influences our choices
This Purse describes the level of competition
How this indicates when a horse is stepping up or dropping down in class
Why we place a maximum on the Current Purse Value
8 Step 3: Previous Purse Value…..31
The value of the Purse for the previous performance you are evaluating taken from DRF PP's
This Purse describes the level of competition faced in the horse's previous race
How this indicates when a horse is stepping up or dropping down in class
Why we place a maximum on the Previous Race Value subtracted from a horse's evaluation
9 Step 4: Beyer Speed Rating…..33
To date, the most factual and powerful evaluation of how fast a horse can rum
How and why we use Beyer Speed Figures in our process
10 Step 5: Lengths Behind The Winner…..36
Our new Beaten Lengths Chart
Why we chose 10 lengths behind the winner as the maximum penalty
Using only full lengths behind and dropping any fractions
11 Step 6: Final Performance Rating…..39
Putting it all together!
Why we use four previous performances to evaluate a horse
How to handicap a horse with fewer than four previous performances
12 Fair Grounds Race Track…..41
1 1/8 miles Allowance Race – Purse of $41,000 for four year olds and upward
The 6th Race on Saturday January 19, 2008 and a field of 8 entries, 6 starters.
Examples 12A-C:
Our evaluation revealed #7 Eighteenthofmarch the best horse in the field, going off at about 7-1.
13 Santa Anita Park…..45
6 Furlongs Starter Allowance Race – Purse of $26,000 for California bred 3 year old fillies
The 4th Race on Sunday January 13, 2008 and a field of 8 starters.
Examples 13A-C:
Our evaluation revealed #6 Testify to Love, the best horse in the field, going off at just under 6-1
The first 4 horses came in exactly as we called, hitting the Winner, Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta.
14 Aqueduct Race Track…..49
1 Mile & 70 Yards Allowance Race – Purse of $41,000 for 4 years old and upward
The 9th Race on Sunday January 13, 2008, a field of 10 entries, 8 starters
Examples 14A-D:
Our evaluation revealed #4 Dr. D.F.C. the best horse in the field, going off at 10.40-1.
15 Hawthorne Race Course…..53
1 1/16 Miles Maiden Claiming Race – Purse of $13,000 for 4 years old and upward
The 1st Race on Sunday January 2, 2008 and a field of 7 starters
Examples 15A-C:
Our evaluation revealed #3 Honeymoon House the best horse in the field, going off at 4-1 and the
post time favorite #4 Chop Slewy second best and that's exactly how they came in.
16 Fair Grounds Race Track…..56
6 Furlongs Allowance, Optional Claiming Race – Purse of $41,000 for Louisiana bred 3 year olds
The 2nd Race on Saturday March 8, 2008 and a field of 10 starters
Examples 16A-C:
Our evaluation revealed #1 Cush, the best horse, #3 K Otee the second best and #8 Must Acquit
the third best and that's exactly how they came in, hitting the Winner, Exacta and Trifecta.
17 Santa Anita Park…..60
1 1/8 Miles Allowance Race – Purse of $73,000 for Fillies & Mares, 4 years old and upward
The 10th Race on Saturday March 1, 2008 and a field of 12 starters
Examples 17A-E:
Our evaluation revealed that #8 Forest Melody was the best horse in the field going off at 4-1.
18 Fair Grounds Race Track…..64
1 1/8 Miles Handicap Race, the 83rd running of the New Orleans Handicap - Purse of $500,000
The 6th Race on Saturday March 8, 2008 and a field of 7 starters, 4 years old and upward
Examples 18A-C:
Our evaluation revealed that #4 Circular Quay was the best horse in the field, going off at 6.50-1.
19 Hawthorne Race Course…..68
6 Furlongs Claiming Race – Purse of $10,500 for 7 years old and upward
The 8th Race on Wednesday January 9, 2008 and a field of 10 starters
Examples 19A-D:
Our evaluation revealed #1 Luga the best horse in the field, going off at 2.70-1 and that #6 Gino
Massetti the second best horse, giving us the Winner and the Exacta.
20 Santa Anita Park…..72
6 1/2 Furlongs Allowance Race – Purse of $52,000 on the Turf for Fillies & Mares, 4 years old & up
The 7th Race on Saturday February 16, 2008 and a field of 10 starters
Examples 20A-D:
Our evaluation revealed #3 Petite Cherie the best horse in the field, going off at 6.30-1.
21 Laurel Park…..76
6 Furlongs Claiming Race – Purse of $10,000 for 4 year olds and upward
The 7th Race on Saturday March 22, 2008 and a field of 8 starters
Examples 21A-C:
Our evaluation revealed #8 Bleniem was the best horse in the field, but #4 Announce of Gold was
the second best horse, going off at 31.20-1 giving us the Exacta in addition to the Winner.
22 Aqueduct Race Track…..80
6 Furlongs, Maiden Special Weight – Purse of $48,000 for 3 year olds and upward
The 2nd Race on Saturday March 8, 2008 and a field of 7 starters
Examples 22A-C:
Our evaluation revealed that #5 Noble Truth was the best horse in the field, going off at 2-1, but
that #1 True Rebel was the second best horse and that is how they came in.
Appendix A Track Size & Length of Stretch…..83
Appendix B Track/Distance Equivalent Chart…..84
Appendix C Track Name & Official Abbreviation…..85
Appendix D Beaten Lengths Chart…..86
Appendix E Blank Chart for your own TAG Numbers…..87
Note on page numbering: "Examples" in Chapters 12-22 are in addition to regular page numbering. Actual pages are 125.
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